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- Article name
- Modeling the risk of violation of the ecological status of roadside territories of permafrost zone of Russia in the conditions of climate change
- Authors
- TROFIMENKO Yu. V., , ywtrofimenko@mail.ru, The Moscow Automobile and Road Construction State Technical University (MADI), Moscow, Russia
YAKUBOVICH A. N., , 54081@mail.ru, The Moscow Automobile and Road Construction State Technical University (MADI), Moscow, Russia
- Keywords
- permafrost / climate change / maintenance of roads / environmental risk / statistical modeling
- Year
- 2017 Issue 1 Pages 41 - 47
- Code EDN
- Code DOI
- Abstract
- Considered and reasonable method of assessing the risk of adverse environmental phenomena in roadside territories located in the zone of permafrost, projected climate changes. As a quantitative measure for assessing risk a proposed risk factor, the algorithm of its calculation on the basis of the probabilistic calculation. Performed quantitative risk assessment: the higher average temperature by 1 degree, and increase the contrast of the temperature regime on territory. It is shown that the considered climatic changes lead to a significant increase in risk.
- Text
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