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- Article name
- Analysis of the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors on the formation of catastrophic floods in the lower reaches of the Amur River
- Authors
- BULYCHOV S. N., , bulychovsn@yandex.ru, MATI - Russian State Technological University named after K. E. Tsiolkovsky, Moscow, Russia
CHVERTKIN A. G., , leliosha@yandex.ru, Moscow Aviation Institute (National Research University), Moscow, Russia
VASKOVA E. A., , esenya95@mail.ru, Saint Petersburg State University; FSBI "State Hydrological Institute", St. Petersburg, Russia
- Keywords
- catastrophic flood / flood / discharge / flow-forming factor / multiple linear regression / correlation coefficient / predictor / statistical analysis / predictant
- Year
- 2021 Issue 1 Pages 34 - 40
- Code EDN
- Code DOI
- 10.52190/2073-2589_2021_1_34
- Abstract
- The article considers the flow rates in the section of the lower Amur, which are dependent variables - predictors of factors that are predictors. Their statistical analysis is carried out, which reflects the pattern in the occurrence of extreme maximum flows in the lower Amur. In addition, the influence of anthropogenic factors on the change in runoff in the lower channel of the Amur River was analyzed. Taken together, these approaches make it possible to exclude from consideration factors that do not belong to the flow-forming ones in the considered section of the river. The dynamics of the passage of the 2013 flood wave is analyzed, a feature of which is a decrease in runoff in the middle of the lower Amur section and its increase at the end, namely, in the village Bogorodsky. On the basis of statistical analysis using the method of multiple linear regression, the main predictors that influenced the runoff were determined. The data obtained made it possible to develop a mathematical model of the flow rate formation. This model can be used to construct flood maps in the area of the lower Amur.
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