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- Article name
- Functions and algorithm for calculating global warming and its dangerous natural consequences
- Authors
- TETELMIN V. V., , v-tetelmin@rambler.ru, Institute of Ecology of the Russian Peoples' Friendship University named after Patrice Lumumba; Public Council at the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
- Keywords
- global warming / climate system / radiation equilibrium temperature / net absorption of thermal energy / natural disasters
- Year
- 2025 Issue 1 Pages 48 - 59
- Code EDN
- HXZCXE
- Code DOI
- 10.52190/2073-2589_2025_1_48
- Abstract
- For the first time in climatology, an algorithm for the analytical calculation of global warming has been built, based on the sequential use of a number of obtained empirical functions that take into account the features of the process of anthropogenic global warming and the frequency of occurrence of dangerous natural consequences. The proposed analytical functions are obtained based on the analysis of data accumulated by world science for monitoring the global warming process. A distinctive feature of the proposed calculation functions is the use of the concentration of anthropogenic greenhouse gases accumulated in the atmosphere as an independent variable. The proposed functions are recommended to be used to perform forecast calculations of the main parameters of the global warming process and its catastrophic consequences in the future. Using the developed analytical functions and algorithm, global warming and the frequency of occurrence of dangerous natural disasters caused by it were calculated under a moderate decarbonization scenario of human economic activity.
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